Recession risk has climbed sharply, with AI model placing the probability at 49% within 12 months. Goldman Sachs puts odds at 30%, Wilmington Trust at 45%. The Federal Reserve held rates steady. Import prices jumped 1.3% in February, the biggest rise in nearly four years. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.41%. Analysts warn that stagflation - a toxic combination of low growth and high inflation - is an increasingly real risk.